#10 A Summary

Throughout my research, I have explored the complexity of the climate and biodiversity crises, uncovering both their vast scope and the challenges in addressing them. These crises are deeply interconnected, involving a multitude of factors such as land use, policy decisions, economic structures, and environmental conservation efforts. Understanding this complexity has been essential in identifying viable solutions. Given the broad nature of the problem, I needed a structured approach to navigate my inquiry, which led me to adopt a design-oriented perspective. By framing my research through the lens of design solutions, I had something to navigate by throughout the process.

I began by examining the role of major international organisations such as the United Nations, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). These institutions play a critical role in shaping global responses to environmental challenges, setting policy frameworks, and guiding conservation efforts. However, despite their influence, many of the strategies implemented at the international level struggle with enforcement and accountability, often relying on voluntary commitments from nations and industries and a lot of financial support. This highlighted the need for systemic changes that go beyond policy declarations and focus on tangible, enforceable actions.

A significant focus of my research has been the political dimensions of the climate and biodiversity crises. While various policies have been enacted to curb environmental degradation, gaps remain in implementation, enforcement, and long-term commitment. Many policies prioritise economic growth over ecological stability, leading to continued environmental harm. The issue of land use exemplifies this challenge. Land-use change is currently the greatest driver of biodiversity loss, yet responsibility for managing and protecting nature is often diffuse and difficult to assign. This lack of clear accountability makes it difficult to implement lasting solutions, as economic and infrastructural interests frequently take precedence over conservation.

In seeking potential solutions, I explored alternative approaches such as the permaculture movement and regenerative agriculture. Both emphasize sustainable land management practices that restore ecosystems rather than deplete them. Permaculture focuses on designing agricultural and social systems that work in harmony with nature, while regenerative agriculture seeks to improve soil health, increase biodiversity, and create resilient farming practices. These methods demonstrate the potential for human activities to coexist with and even enhance natural systems. However, while promising, they require widespread adoption, supportive policies, and systemic shifts in agricultural practices to have a large-scale impact.

One of the most intriguing topics I have explored is speculative design and future-thinking as a means of addressing environmental challenges.

Large societal transformations are only possible if humanity gets better at imagining and envisioning positive futures

(Corc, et. al., 2023)

Unlike conventional solutions that react to existing problems, speculative design allows for the exploration of potential futures, considering how societies might evolve in response to climate change and biodiversity loss. Future-thinking integrates interdisciplinary knowledge, systems thinking, and design methodologies to anticipate long-term outcomes and create visionary solutions.

Future-thinking offers several advantages in tackling environmental crises. First, it enables proactive rather than reactive decision-making, allowing policymakers, designers, and communities to plan for multiple scenarios. Second, it encourages holistic solutions that consider ecological, social, and technological dimensions simultaneously. Finally, it fosters creativity and adaptability, which are crucial for addressing the unprecedented challenges posed by climate change and biodiversity loss.

Another factor that makes this method superior, is that scenario based future-thinking, can create such immersive and strong future-scenarios that can impact and appeal to the audience in a much stronger degree than other methods. An since value-change and understanding from the audience is what true transformation needs, it is a important factor to take into account.

A company called Superflux, makes immersive, real built scenario exhibitions about the future – which allows the audience to use all their senses and truly feel what the future can bring

In a TED Talk “Why We Need To Imagine Different Futures”, the CEO Anab Jain says (Superflux, 2009, 6:30):

One of the most powerful tools for driving change is allowing people to experience the future consequences of their actions today

Anab Jain, CEO of Superflux

From a design perspective, future-thinking is particularly compelling because it provides a framework through which I can contribute meaningfully. Rather than being confined to mitigating existing damage, I can use design to imagine and construct sustainable futures. This might involve creating resilient urban environments that incorporate nature, developing innovative materials and technologies that reduce environmental impact, or designing policies and infrastructures that prioritize ecological health. By merging speculative design with real-world applications, future-thinking allows for the integration of visionary ideas with practical implementation.

As I conclude this phase of my research, I recognise that future-thinking is the most promising and encompassing solution I have encountered. It not only addresses the immediate and long-term challenges of climate and biodiversity crises but also provides a structured, design-oriented methodology that aligns with my expertise. However, this realisation is only the beginning. Moving forward, I intend to dive deeper into the field of future-thinking, exploring its applications in environmental policy, urban planning, and ecological restoration. By continuing this research, I hope to contribute to the development of innovative strategies that bridge the gap between imagination and action, ultimately shaping a future where nature and human progress coexist harmoniously.


Sources:

Cork, S., Alexandra, C., Alvarez-Romero, J.G., Bennet, E.M., Berbés-Blásquez, M., Bohensky, E., Bok, B., Constanza, R., Hashimoto, S., Hill, R., Inayatullah, S., Kok, K., Kuiper, J.J., Moglia, M., Pereira, L., Peterson, G., Weeks, R. & Wyborn, C. (2023). Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 48, 25-54. Swinburne University of Technology. Retrieved from https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-095011

Superflux. (2017, 19. juni). TED Talk: Why We Need To Imagine Different Futures [Video] Superflux. Retrieved from https://superflux.in/index.php/ted-2017-the-future-you/#

#09 Using future visions to change the world

Before I begin, soundtrack of this post: I´d love to change the world – Ten Years After

Now that I have researched a whole lot of different aspects of the interconnected nature- and climate crisis, I need to look deeper what some of the solutions can be. What are the most efficient ways to create real change? And in this context? Understanding and imagining solutions for societal-scale decision-making is a complex challenge, often called a wicked problem. This complexity arises from the diverse ways people perceive the issues and the uncertainty of decision outcomes. It is also difficult to bring people together at the right scale to reach a shared understanding. Trying to find the answer to this, I have come across Speculative Design and Future Thinking– something that may show it self to be the tools I (/we) need.


Speculative Design explores future possibilities and societal impacts of emerging technology and shifting cultural and social trends, diverging from traditional design to provoke new thought, debate, directions, preferences, and strategy (Neeley, 2024).

Futures-thinking is a diverse scholarship and practice, drawing on multiple disciplines across the sciences, arts, and humanities, that explore the nature of change, how humans conceive of futures, the range of possible (not just probable) futures, and how alternative futures might emerge (Corc, et. al., 2023).

Anthropocene refers to the period since the 1950s, which has seen exponential increases in human impacts on global ecological systems, with implications for the nature and quality of life, across all societies (Corc, et. al., 2023).


Speculative design is an approach that explores possible futures by using design as a tool to imagine and provoke thought about what could be. Unlike traditional design, which focuses on solving existing problems, speculative design pushes boundaries by addressing “what if” scenarios. It challenges assumptions and opens up discussions about potential futures. Speculative design often combines elements of storytelling, critical thinking, and visual representation to create thought-provoking and immersive artifacts, experiences, or scenarios.

The article Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene on future-thinking was published by a group of scientist by the Swinburne University of Technology about “[…] cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking” (Corc, et. al., 2023). The authors´ objective was to “[…] help newcomers to futures-thinking make sense of what has been happening in scholarship and practice and to encourage existing participants to reflect on past and recent developments”. Therefore, this article is the perfect way into the topic of speculative design.

These scientists, claim that the two critical requirements for transformative change are:

  1. The cognitive and/or institutional capabilities for understanding and acknowledging humanity’s current predicament (i.e., the relationship between people and the planet).
  2. The capabilities to imagine new futures—ones involving possibilities not encountered before—and the possible pathways toward achieving them

They also argue that these requirements are especially poorly developed across humanity, and are therefore also the key vulnerabilities of our era.

A “future cone”, showing the width of the different futures in front of us – but also the most probable ones (Corc, et. al., 2023).

The scientists summed up their article into 4 important takes:

  1. To achieve the transformations required to address Anthropocene challenges, societies need opportunities that bring a diversity of knowledge and perceptions together to seek shared understandings of current situations and to imagine what alternative futures might be possible, including radical ones never before imagined.
  2. Incremental adjustment within current paradigms and systems is no longer an option that will allow humanity to survive the Anthropocene, let alone achieve sustainable futures with high levels of human well-being and harmonious coexistence with other species.
  3. Lessons from more than seven decades, especially the past two, suggest that the diverse knowledge and expertise embodied in theories, philosophies, approaches, and methods for futures-thinking offer models for achieving the above, although coupling futures-thinking with mainstream decision-making and governance remains a challenge.
  4. Many cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on broad societal uptake of futures-thinking exist, but none are insurmountable once understood (Corc, et. al., 2023).

Transformative change is required to meet many of the challenges of the Anthropocene. To make this change happen, people need to better understand the present situation, strengthen their ability to imagine and share hopeful futures, and explore different ways to reach those futures. That is why speculative design or future-thinking will play a crucial role in the great shift that is needed. It will help bridge the gap between scientific data and public engagement by presenting future scenarios in an accessible and emotionally resonant way. Through these methods, we can imagine resilient cities, regenerative agriculture systems, and circular economies that prioritise ecological balance – and maybe start to believe that change is possible.

By using speculative design as a tool, I can challenge existing paradigms in the pursuit of environmental sustainability. Ultimately, speculative design is not just about imagining futures—it is about shaping them, and as a designer, this may be one of the most impactful contributions I can make to addressing the climate and nature crisis.


Sources:

Cork, S., Alexandra, C., Alvarez-Romero, J.G., Bennet, E.M., Berbés-Blásquez, M., Bohensky, E., Bok, B., Constanza, R., Hashimoto, S., Hill, R., Inayatullah, S., Kok, K., Kuiper, J.J., Moglia, M., Pereira, L., Peterson, G., Weeks, R. & Wyborn, C. (2023). Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 48, 25-54. Swinburne University of Technology. Retrieved from https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-095011

Neeley, J. Paul. (2024, 19th of June). What is Speculative Design? School of Critical Design. Retrieved from https://www.critical.design/post/what-is-speculative-design