#10 A Summary

Throughout my research, I have explored the complexity of the climate and biodiversity crises, uncovering both their vast scope and the challenges in addressing them. These crises are deeply interconnected, involving a multitude of factors such as land use, policy decisions, economic structures, and environmental conservation efforts. Understanding this complexity has been essential in identifying viable solutions. Given the broad nature of the problem, I needed a structured approach to navigate my inquiry, which led me to adopt a design-oriented perspective. By framing my research through the lens of design solutions, I had something to navigate by throughout the process.

I began by examining the role of major international organisations such as the United Nations, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). These institutions play a critical role in shaping global responses to environmental challenges, setting policy frameworks, and guiding conservation efforts. However, despite their influence, many of the strategies implemented at the international level struggle with enforcement and accountability, often relying on voluntary commitments from nations and industries and a lot of financial support. This highlighted the need for systemic changes that go beyond policy declarations and focus on tangible, enforceable actions.

A significant focus of my research has been the political dimensions of the climate and biodiversity crises. While various policies have been enacted to curb environmental degradation, gaps remain in implementation, enforcement, and long-term commitment. Many policies prioritise economic growth over ecological stability, leading to continued environmental harm. The issue of land use exemplifies this challenge. Land-use change is currently the greatest driver of biodiversity loss, yet responsibility for managing and protecting nature is often diffuse and difficult to assign. This lack of clear accountability makes it difficult to implement lasting solutions, as economic and infrastructural interests frequently take precedence over conservation.

In seeking potential solutions, I explored alternative approaches such as the permaculture movement and regenerative agriculture. Both emphasize sustainable land management practices that restore ecosystems rather than deplete them. Permaculture focuses on designing agricultural and social systems that work in harmony with nature, while regenerative agriculture seeks to improve soil health, increase biodiversity, and create resilient farming practices. These methods demonstrate the potential for human activities to coexist with and even enhance natural systems. However, while promising, they require widespread adoption, supportive policies, and systemic shifts in agricultural practices to have a large-scale impact.

One of the most intriguing topics I have explored is speculative design and future-thinking as a means of addressing environmental challenges.

Large societal transformations are only possible if humanity gets better at imagining and envisioning positive futures

(Corc, et. al., 2023)

Unlike conventional solutions that react to existing problems, speculative design allows for the exploration of potential futures, considering how societies might evolve in response to climate change and biodiversity loss. Future-thinking integrates interdisciplinary knowledge, systems thinking, and design methodologies to anticipate long-term outcomes and create visionary solutions.

Future-thinking offers several advantages in tackling environmental crises. First, it enables proactive rather than reactive decision-making, allowing policymakers, designers, and communities to plan for multiple scenarios. Second, it encourages holistic solutions that consider ecological, social, and technological dimensions simultaneously. Finally, it fosters creativity and adaptability, which are crucial for addressing the unprecedented challenges posed by climate change and biodiversity loss.

Another factor that makes this method superior, is that scenario based future-thinking, can create such immersive and strong future-scenarios that can impact and appeal to the audience in a much stronger degree than other methods. An since value-change and understanding from the audience is what true transformation needs, it is a important factor to take into account.

A company called Superflux, makes immersive, real built scenario exhibitions about the future – which allows the audience to use all their senses and truly feel what the future can bring

In a TED Talk “Why We Need To Imagine Different Futures”, the CEO Anab Jain says (Superflux, 2009, 6:30):

One of the most powerful tools for driving change is allowing people to experience the future consequences of their actions today

Anab Jain, CEO of Superflux

From a design perspective, future-thinking is particularly compelling because it provides a framework through which I can contribute meaningfully. Rather than being confined to mitigating existing damage, I can use design to imagine and construct sustainable futures. This might involve creating resilient urban environments that incorporate nature, developing innovative materials and technologies that reduce environmental impact, or designing policies and infrastructures that prioritize ecological health. By merging speculative design with real-world applications, future-thinking allows for the integration of visionary ideas with practical implementation.

As I conclude this phase of my research, I recognise that future-thinking is the most promising and encompassing solution I have encountered. It not only addresses the immediate and long-term challenges of climate and biodiversity crises but also provides a structured, design-oriented methodology that aligns with my expertise. However, this realisation is only the beginning. Moving forward, I intend to dive deeper into the field of future-thinking, exploring its applications in environmental policy, urban planning, and ecological restoration. By continuing this research, I hope to contribute to the development of innovative strategies that bridge the gap between imagination and action, ultimately shaping a future where nature and human progress coexist harmoniously.


Sources:

Cork, S., Alexandra, C., Alvarez-Romero, J.G., Bennet, E.M., Berbés-Blásquez, M., Bohensky, E., Bok, B., Constanza, R., Hashimoto, S., Hill, R., Inayatullah, S., Kok, K., Kuiper, J.J., Moglia, M., Pereira, L., Peterson, G., Weeks, R. & Wyborn, C. (2023). Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 48, 25-54. Swinburne University of Technology. Retrieved from https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-095011

Superflux. (2017, 19. juni). TED Talk: Why We Need To Imagine Different Futures [Video] Superflux. Retrieved from https://superflux.in/index.php/ted-2017-the-future-you/#

#06 The Dark Side of Land Use

The most significant threat to biodiversity is land development, not climate change as some might believe

Bernt-Erik Sæther, director of the Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics

The UN’s biodiversity panel, IPBES, ranks “land-use change” as the greatest threat to biodiversity (NTNU Event, 2022, 7:50). In 2022, WWF published a comprehensive report on the frequency and scale of biodiversity and climate changes. The report discusses the “2022 global Living Planet Index,” which shows an average decline of 69% in monitored wildlife populations between 1970 and 2018 (Almond et al., 2022, p. 12). It also highlights how the biodiversity and climate crises are interconnected, like two sides of the same coin—solving one requires addressing the other (Almond et al., 2022, p. 4).

An article titled Norway in Red, White, and Gray from the Norwegian Broadcasting Cooperation (NRK) used artificial intelligence to map 44,000 instances of environmental encroachment in Norway over the past five years (Mon et al., 2023).

Image from NRK´s report (Mon et al., 2023)

However, according to biology researcher Ivar Herfindal from Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)´s Department of Biology, this mapping only provides a skeletal overview of environmental impacts (NTNU Event, 2024, 22:40). He emphasises that satellite images do not reveal which species are affected by development, requiring more detailed investigations. This means that we have lost a lot more than this map can show us.

The NRK series The Inspector featuring Bård Tufte Johansen, also highlights nature loss, showing how various infrastructure developments—such as roads, wind power, and industry—gradually consume Norwegian nature piece by piece (NRK, 2024). This leads to habitat fragmentation and species extinction.

In his lecture “Why Can’t We Sacrifice Nature for the Green Transition?” professor Dag Hessen argues that nature is often compromised in favour of shorter travel times (Det Norske Vitenskapsakademi, 2023, 12:04). In an interview with Naturviterne, Hessen also emphasises that public engagement and awareness are crucial in influencing political decision-makers and driving change (Hundere, 2024).

But is is not only animals and plants that suffer from the nature shrinking. Humans also have a need for higher biodiversity and bigger green spaces around them – especially those living in urban areas. Urban living provides access to education, healthcare, and diverse cultures, but it often comes at the cost of health and well-being. Studies have linked urban environments—characterised by limited greenspace and high pollution—to increased rates of depression, anxiety, and attention disorders (McDonnell, et. al., 2024). Chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease, high blood pressure, and obesity are also more prevalent in cities. To counter these effects, researchers highlight the benefits of exposure to nature, which can improve cognitive function, mood, and creativity while promoting physical health by encouraging exercise, reducing stress, and lowering blood pressure. Additionally, natural spaces foster social interactions and help combat loneliness.

Despite national environmental goals aimed at preserving important outdoor recreation areas, only 45% of the population in cities and towns have adequate access to nearby nature and walking trails. In the largest cities, this percentage is even lower (WWF, 2021).


Area neutrality involves restoring areas of nature to compensate for the loss of natural land, due to development elsewhere.



Bernt-Erik Sæther, the director of the Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics CBD, discusses in a talk at Arendalsuka – the largest political gathering in Norway – how here is currently a lack of an overarching strategy to identify and regulate which parts of Norway’s natural areas should be preserved (NTNU Event, 2022, 13:33). A strong national framework for regulating land development is needed. Since much of the decision-making power lies with municipalities or landowners, each municipality is left to make decisions independently, often without considering the broader picture.

However, the government is now working on a government report on nature, which is expected to outline how concepts such as area neutrality, nature positivity, and natural accounting will be implemented in Norway (regjeringen.no, 2023). A recent survey also shows that 80 Norwegian municipalities have plans to become “area neutral” (Nyhus, 2023). This is on the foundations of the COP15 in 2022, where governments from around the world came together to agree on a new set of goals to guide global action through 2030 to halt and reverse nature loss (UN, 2022).

Conclusion

Only if Norway and other states establish clear goals to prevent nature loss, define precise terms, and create reliable indicators to measure biodiversity loss, can they effectively strengthen the decline in biodiversity. However, policy alone is not enough – public engagement and awareness are crucial in influencing political decision-makers and driving change.


Sources:

Almond, R.E.A., Grooten, M., Juffe Bignoli,  D. & Petersen, T. (Eds). WWF, Gland, Switzerland. (2022). Living Planet Report 2022 – Building a nature- positive society. WWF. Retrieved from https://media.wwf.no/assets/attachments/lpr_2022_full_report_2023-02-09-115529_ahtx.pdf?_gl=1*16u778x*_up*MQ..*_ga*NjA1MTQ4ODUxLjE3MTQ2NTM5MTQ.*_ga_BB7Z1P8XYM*MTcxNDY1MzkxNC4xLjAuMTcxNDY1MzkxNC4wLjAuMA

Det Norske Vitenskapsakademi. (2023, 8th of November). Dag O. Hessen: Hvorfor kan vi ikke ofre naturen for det grønne skiftet? [Video]. Youtube. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOa2GFtmfu8

McDonnell, Amy S. & Strayer, David L (2024). The influence of a walk in nature on human resting brain activity: a randomized controlled trial. Retrieved from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-78508-x

Mon, S. T., Solvang, R., Støstad, M. N. (2023). Norge i rødt, hvitt og grått. Retrieved from
https://www.nrk.no/dokumentar/xl/nrk-avslorer_-44.000-inngrep-i-norsk-natur-pa-fem-ar-1.16573560

NRK. (2024). Oppsynsmannen – NRK TV. https://tv.nrk.no/serie/oppsynsmannen

NTNU Event (2022, 16th of August). Hvem bestemmer over norsk natur? – Arendalsuka 2022 [Video].  Youtube. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j16EJiCrxSA

Regjeringen.no (2023, 29th of June) Naturavtalen. Retrieved from
https://www.regjeringen.no/no/tema/klima-og-miljo/naturmangfold/innsiktsartikler-naturmangfold/det-globale-kunming-montreal-rammeverket-for-naturmangfold-naturavtalen/id2987476/

UN. (2022). UN Biodiversity Conference (COP 15). Retrieved from https://www.unep.org/un-biodiversity-conference-cop-15